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µÚËÄƪ£ºÓ¢Óïҽҩѧרҵ

1. introduction to quantitative risk assessment

2.

risk analysis is a valuable tool in the management of

microbial food safety issues and can provide a systematic

approach for the regulatory authorities and the food industry

to control the risk posed by a pathogen in a particular

food commodity. risk analysis consists of three elements:

risk assessment, risk management and risk communication.

risk assessment is the scientific part of the process in www.bsmz.netan population and may

pose a short term, chronic, or fatal risk to a person. the

identification of microbial hazard associated www.bsmz.netent model can be ¡®deterministic¡¯,

i.e. derived using single data points along the food chain.

howww.bsmz.netes (multiple iterations) www.bsmz.net)al trials, in vitro studies using cell lines,

biomarkers or expert opinion. in some cases, the dose¨C

responses www.bsmz.nets can separate the distribution

for the overall risk prediction into uncertainty and variability

to allowww.bsmz.neterging as a cause of similar illness to e. coli

o157:h7 they are not addressed in this paper as there is

still limited information on their transmission thorough

the beef chain and they have not been included in any published

quantitative risk assessment models.

2. e. coli o157:h7: human clinical aspects

e. coli o157 is a member of the enterhaemorrhagic

group of e. coli (ehec) and www.bsmz.netain classes of verotoxin: vt1, a

homogeneous group of toxins, virtually identical to the

shiga toxin of shigella and vt2, a heterogeneous group

of toxins, more distantly related to the shiga toxin.

e. coli o157 www.bsmz.netately 4 cases per 100,000 (scieh, 201*). in the republic of ireland

the incidence per 100,000 has ranged from a peak of

2.2 in 201* to 1.3 in 201* (hpsc, 201*). in northern europe

infection rates are very lowww.bsmz.netost

problems related to e. coli o157:h7 www.bsmz.netichino et al., 1999). person-to-person

is also an important mode of transmission, particularly

in day care centers (o¡¯donnell et al., 201*) and direct contact

with animals carrying the organism or with faecally

contaminated mud (anon, 1999; crampin et al., 1999)

are also recognised sources of infection

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