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µÚËÄƪ£ºÓ¢Óïҽҩѧרҵ
1. introduction to quantitative risk assessment
2.
risk analysis is a valuable tool in the management of
microbial food safety issues and can provide a systematic
approach for the regulatory authorities and the food industry
to control the risk posed by a pathogen in a particular
food commodity. risk analysis consists of three elements:
risk assessment, risk management and risk communication.
risk assessment is the scientific part of the process in www.bsmz.netan population and may
pose a short term, chronic, or fatal risk to a person. the
identification of microbial hazard associated www.bsmz.netent model can be ¡®deterministic¡¯,
i.e. derived using single data points along the food chain.
howww.bsmz.netes (multiple iterations) www.bsmz.net)al trials, in vitro studies using cell lines,
biomarkers or expert opinion. in some cases, the dose¨C
responses www.bsmz.nets can separate the distribution
for the overall risk prediction into uncertainty and variability
to allowww.bsmz.neterging as a cause of similar illness to e. coli
o157:h7 they are not addressed in this paper as there is
still limited information on their transmission thorough
the beef chain and they have not been included in any published
quantitative risk assessment models.
2. e. coli o157:h7: human clinical aspects
e. coli o157 is a member of the enterhaemorrhagic
group of e. coli (ehec) and www.bsmz.netain classes of verotoxin: vt1, a
homogeneous group of toxins, virtually identical to the
shiga toxin of shigella and vt2, a heterogeneous group
of toxins, more distantly related to the shiga toxin.
e. coli o157 www.bsmz.netately 4 cases per 100,000 (scieh, 201*). in the republic of ireland
the incidence per 100,000 has ranged from a peak of
2.2 in 201* to 1.3 in 201* (hpsc, 201*). in northern europe
infection rates are very lowww.bsmz.netost
problems related to e. coli o157:h7 www.bsmz.netichino et al., 1999). person-to-person
is also an important mode of transmission, particularly
in day care centers (o¡¯donnell et al., 201*) and direct contact
with animals carrying the organism or with faecally
contaminated mud (anon, 1999; crampin et al., 1999)
are also recognised sources of infection
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